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Tools

Built from the analyses, starting with "Fairway vs. Rough, by Handicap." First up: the scramble decision tool. More tools land as new analyses publish.

Which ball do you play?

Enter your two lies. The call comes straight from the break-even model, same as chart 2 in the post.
Play the rough ball
—
gap needed to break evengap you have
The break-even gap comes from the same worth model as the break-even explorer, at your fairway ball's distance, scaled for the rough severity you picked.

How far does the rough ball need to be to catch the fairway ball?

Built from Broadie's Tour ShotLink data and Stagner/Arccos amateur break-even data. 25/30-handicap values are extrapolated; the published table stops at 20.
Fairway distance
150 yd
Rough ball ties it at
— yd
The fairway is worth
— yd
Dashed line = no lie advantage (fairway and rough tie at the same distance). The gap between the solid curve and the dashed line, at any point, is what the fairway is worth for that skill level and rough severity.

Simulated chance of hitting the green

Monte Carlo shot-dispersion model, distance-aware via real Stagner/Arccos proximity data. Treat the output as an illustration of the model rather than an official GIR benchmark.
This models single-shot proximity, so it misses the long-range rough roll-out effect that shows up in the real Stagner scoring data (see the post). Tour dispersion assumes pros are 25% tighter than a scratch amateur; that figure is a judgment call rather than a cited number.